Studiennummer: ZA 8238
Studientitel: Lange Wellen der internationalen Industrieproduktion, Energieverbrauch, Innovationen, Inventionen und Patente von 1738 bis 1979.
Erhebungs- bzw. Untersuchungszeitraum: 1738 - 1979
Primärforscher: Haustein, Heinz-Dieter; Neuwirth, Erich
Veröffentlichung (gedruckte Veröffentlichung): Haustein, H.-D./Neuwirth, E., 1982: Long Waves in World Industrial Production, Energy Consumption, Innovations, Inventions, and Patents and their Identification by Spectral Analysis. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. Laxenburg, Austria. Working Paper WP-82-9.
Empfohlene Zitation (Datensatz):
Haustein, Heinz-Dieter; Neuwirth, Erich, (1982 [2006]) Lange Wellen der internationalen Industrieproduktion, Energieverbrauch, Innovationen, Inventionen und Patente von 1738 bis 1979.
Daten entnommen aus:
GESIS Datenarchiv, Köln. histat.
Studiennummer 8238
Datenfile Version 1.0.0
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Studienbeschreibung:
In zahlreichen Studien wurde gezeigt, dass die Nachfrage des Produktionssystems einen wichtigen Antrieb für Innovationen und Inventionen darstellt. Dieser Zusammenhang impliziert jedoch nicht, dass Innovationen und Inventionen direkt dem Wachstumsmuster industrieller Produktion folgen. Im Rahmen einer Sekundäranalyse analysieren die Autoren mit Hilfe eines zeitreihenanalytischen Verfahrens (der Spektralanalyse) ausgewählte Reihen im Hinblick auf Zyklen unterschiedlicher Länge. Berücksichtigt werden die industrielle (Welt-) Produktion, der Weltenergieverbrauch (Primärenergie) sowie die englische und amerikanische Patentstatistik. Mit Hilfe einer Datensammlung zu 182 Inventionen und Innovationen werden ergänzend zwei Indices gebildet: der Innovations - Index und der Inventions – Index. Jede Innovation und Invention wird durch drei Indikatoren repräsentiert: der Anzahl (‚number’), der Bedeutung (‚importance coefficient’) und dem Innovationspotential (‚power coefficient’).
“There is no doubt that in the course of history, industrial growth has experienced a number of upswings and downswings. Looking at world industrial production from 1850 to 1979, we see that growth rates have been rather unstable during this period. Using an exponential function to describe long-term trends, one obtains a path of industrial growth measured in deviations from the long-term average (see Figure 1, PDF-file). Here we see the major downswings and upswings in industrial production, among them the unprecedented downswing at the end of the 1920s.
Long-term cycles have been much discussed in the literature since Kondratieff (1926). Some years ago Gerhard Mensch (1975) described these "long-waves" in terms of clusters of innovations, using the frequency distribution of major technological changes over time.
In the past 200 years, several major technical revolutions have significantly affected industrial activities. Despite differences in their technical character, they have had two main features in common:
1. Each of them was caused by a bottleneck in the production system. The railroad, for example, became necessary during the industrial revolutions because of the urgent need to transport coal and cotton.
2. Each of them appeared in one area of the production system and then passed through a chain or network, step by step affecting the whole production system, and later, lifestyles and consumer patterns (see Figure 2, PDF-File). For example, the spinning machine led to the mechanization of weaving, and later to the improvement of bleaching, textile printing, and dyeing (Marx 1963). The steam engine proved to be the appropriate power source for these processes. Machinery soon developed to the point where machines could be produced with machines. As the demand for iron to produce machinery increased, more coal was needed to produce the iron, and so forth.
Each period of industrial development (since 1740) can be described in terms of:
- Changes in resources,
- Changes in demand,
- Changes in labour functions,
- Gaps in the production system and in growth industries.
However, it is difficult to define an exact time-frame for each historical period.
Looking at various data on innovations, inventions, industrial production, energy consumption, and patents, which will be presented in the next chapter, it is again possible to distinguish certain periods that more or less coincide with the periods of industrial development (since 1740). Other authors have obtained results that differ more or less from ours.
‘Cycles’, of course, is a quite arbitrary term for these time periods. History does not actually repeat itself; nor can a strict stable periodicity be observed. Hut people like to think in terms of cycles. This seems to be an old pattern of human thought, influenced by the patterns observed in agricultural periods, weather changes, and tides, in which mechanisms work recurrently.
Our historical periods might be better called quasi-cycles, because we are not sure whether the same fundamental causes are present in all upswings and downswings. So when applying spectral analysis in the investigation of long time series in industrial production, innovations and inventions, we know that we will not necessarily find an underlying pattern in the true sense of the word. Spectral analysis can merely reveal certain quantitative and formal properties of the whole process” (Haustein, H.-D./Neuwirth, E., 1982: Long Waves in World Industrial Production, Energy Consumption, Innovations, Inventions, and Patents and their Identification by Spectral Analysis. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. Laxenburg, Austria. Working Paper WP-82-9, S. 1f).
Untersuchungsgebiet:
Industrieproduktion, Verbrauch von Primärenergie, Innovationen und Erfindungen der Welt von 1738 bis 1979.
Patente in den USA (1890-1979) und Großbritannien (1700-1890).
Mehr
Quellentypen:
Industrieproduktion in der Welt:
Hoffman, W.G.: British Industry 1700-1950. Oxford: Basis Blackwell.
Kuczynski, J., 1967: A World Survey of the Situation of Workers (in German). Berlin (East): Akademie Verlag.
Kuczynski, J., 1978: Spectral Analysis and Cluster Analysis as Mathematical Methods for the Periodization of Historical Processes. Paper for the 7th International Congress on Economic History. Edinburgh.
United Nations: Monthly Bulletin of Statistics 1975-1981. Vol. 30-35. New York: UN Statistical Office.
Verbrauch von Primärenergie:
Schilling, H.-D./Hildebrandt, 1977: Primary Energy - Electrical Energy (in German). Raw Materials Economy International. Vol. 6. Essen: Verlag Glückauf.
Patente in den USA und Großbritannien:
Mitchell, B.R., 1988: British Historical Statistics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Technology Assessment & Forecast, 1977: Seventh Report March 1977. US Department of Commerce. Washington, D.C.: Patent and Trademark Office.
Dummer, G.W.A., 1977: Electronic Inventions 1747-1976. Oxford u.a.: Pergamon Press.
Anmerkungen:
Siehe die beigefügte PDF – Datei.
Sachliche Untergliederung der Datentabellen:
Internationale Industrieproduktion, Energieverbrauch, Innovationen, Inventionen und Patente (1738-1979)
Datum der Archivierung: Mai 2006
Jahr der Online-Publikation: 1982
Bearbeiter in GESIS: Alexander Todorov/Jürgen Sensch
Version:Version 1.0.0
Zugangsklasse: A
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