DDI3.1 Dokumentation für Studie 'Kompromissschätzung des deutschen Nettosozialprodukts von 1851 bis 1913.' ZA8203 Kompromissschätzung des deutschen Nettosozialprodukts von 1851 bis 1913. Burhop, Carsten Wolff, Guntram B. GESIS - Leibniz Institut für Sozialwissenschaften GESIS - Leibniz Institut für Sozialwissenschaften doi:10.4232/1.8137 Kompromissschätzung des deutschen Nettosozialprodukts von 1851 bis 1913. Wachstumsschwankungen wie kurzfristige Konjunkturschwankungen können mit verschiedenen Indikatoren gemessen werden. Die gegenwärtige Forschung nutzt zwei Messkonzepte: multivariate Diffusionsindices oder das Sozialprodukt. „ ein Diffusionsindex erfasst die Entwicklung zahlreicher monetärer und realer Wirtschaftsreihen. Eine Rezession ist bei diesem Konzept definiert als eine Periode, in der mehr Reihen zurückgehen als expandieren. Demgegenüber steht ein univariates Verfahren, nämlich die Konjunkturmessung mit Hilfe des Sozialprodukts. Die moderne Konjunkturforschung bevorzugt dieses Verfahren, da es die gesamte wirtschaftliche Aktivität des Landes umfasst, wohingegen Diffusionsindices nur Teilbereiche der Volkswirtschaft betrachten. Üblicherweise wird bei diesem univariaten Verfahren das Nettosozialprodukt (NSP) von der Entstehungs- oder Verwendungsseite angewandt. Die dritte Berechnungsweise des NSP, die Verteilungsrechnung, wurde bislang vernachlässigt“ (Burhop, C./Wolff, G.B., 2004: Datenwahl, Methodenwahl und ihre Bedeutung für die Konjunkturgeschichte, in: Vierteljahrschrift für Sozial- und Wirtschaftsgeschichte 91, S. 141f). Für die Zeit von 1851 bis 1913 sind vier Zeitreihen zur Entwicklung des deutschen NSP verfügbar, namentlich die Entstehungs-, Verteilungs- und Verwendungsrechnung von Hoffmann (1965) sowie die Verteilungsrechnung von Hoffmann und Müller (1959). “The bulk of research on German macroeconomic history during the nineteenth century, long-term investigations of the German economy since the nineteenth century, and international-comparative studies about macroeconomic patterns, are based on data from two seminal contributions by Walther Hoffmann and Heinz Müller and Hoffmann (Hoffmann, W.G., 1965. Das Wachstum der deutschen Wirtschaft seit Mitte des 19. Jahrhunderts. Berlin: Springer; Hoffmann, W.G./Müller, J.H., 1959: Das deutsche Volkseinkommen 1851-1957. Tübingen: J.C.B. Mohr). These monographs include extensive estimates of the German net national product (NNP) from the income, output, and expenditure sides for the years 1850 to 1913 … The output, income, and expenditure series by Hoffmann have been criticized: the calculation of industrial production, the computation of capital stock and investment, and the estimation of capital income are central points of concern. Nevertheless, German national accounting figures for the nineteenth century have not been re-estimated. In this article, we contribute to the ongoing debate about the data quality by presenting improvements of all four available series. In particular, we improve the output series by calculating a new Index of in dustrial production and by basing the index on a revised value of industrial output in 1913. In addition, we significantly enhance the capital stock and net investment series, and we present new data about capital income. Furthermore, we present a new series of net foreign capital income. Finally, we add new information about "indirect taxes" to the income and output series, and we thus calculate four series representing an NNP in market prices. Despite our significant improvements, differences between the series remain, and we solve this problem in a second step by computing a compromise estimate of Germany's NNP for the years 1851 to 1913 as a weighted average of the four corrected original series. The remaining parts of the article analyze long-term growth and business cycles of the German economy employing the new compromise estimate. The revised data show a higher level of economic activity for 1851 as well as for 1913, but with a larger difference for 1851. Thus, the average growth rate of the German economy was lower during the industrialization period. Moreover, the driving force of this growth was a growing total factor productivity, which in turn was driven by structural change from agriculture to industry. The business cycles of the German economy had an average length of about five years during the second half of the nineteenth century; the magnitude of cycles was weaker in the last quarter of the nineteenth and the early twentieth century than before. Of special interest is our business cycle dating for the 1870s: with the new data the well-known pattern of "Gründerzeit"-boom and "Gründerzeit"-depression can not be confirmed. (Burhop, C. / Wolff, G. B., 2005: A Compromise Estimate of German Net National Product, 1851-1913 and its Implications for Growth and Business Cycles, in: Journal of Economic History, Vol. 65 (3), S. 614f). “CONCLUSIONS How backward was Germany around the mid-nineteenth century, at the beginning of its industrialization? Up to now, precise dating of economic development, growth, and business cycles has been based on Hoffmann's and Hoffmann and Müller's seminal estimates of historical national accounts, which are also included in the comparative statistical handbooks by Mitchell and Maddison. The reliability of studies investigating the German industrialization crucially depends on the quality of the historical national account estimates. Their quality, however, has been questioned. Hoffmann presents three series of German national product, based an output, expenditure, and income estimates. Hoffmann and Müller's series of German income is rarely employed. All four series differ in level and cyclical behaviour, although national accounting requires them to be equal. Therefore, we improved the output series by re-estimating the industrial production Index for 1851-1913 and by re-calculating the base level of industrial production for 1913. The modified expenditure series includes new industrial Investment estimates. Furthermore, we re-calculate the capital income used in Hoffmann's income series. Finally, the three modified series and the income series by Hoffmann and Müller were turned into comparable measures of economic activity, that is, net national product at market prices, by adding taxes on production and Imports and foreign income, where appropriate. Nevertheless, differences between the four series remain. Differences in the national accounts are well-known properties of the historical estimates of other countries, as well as from the early decades of national accounting. Early on Stone et al. proposed constructing a compromise estimate by calculating a weighted average of the single series, a method further developed by Weale. Similarly we compute a compromise estimate of German NNP. This best estimate of German NNP forms the basis for our brief investigation of German growth and business cycle history. The level of economic activity in 1851-Germany we estimate is 24 percent higher than Hoffmann's expenditure series suggest. The average growth rate of the German economy during the industrialization is lower. The main factor of growth was raising total factor productivity, which can be explained by labour re-allocation towards high productivity industry. The business cycle volatility was highest in the early parts of the investigated period; the average length of a cycle was five years. Exact dating of business cycles is done on the basis of the band-pass filtered new German NNP estimate. The resulting pattern for the 1870s is noteworthy because it diverges from the usual findings of German business cycle history. Future research could provide a new base estimate for 1850 and thereby reduce the remaining uncertainties of the estimates in the early decades of the investigated period. Such an investigation could be based on the 1846 Zollverein industrial census” (Burhop, C. / Wolff, G. B., a.a.O., S. 649f). ZA8203_ConCom de.gesis 1.0.0 ZA8203_UniSch de.gesis 1.0.0 ZA8203_Uni de.gesis 1.0.0 Historische Sozialforschung DXDE Deutsches Reich (1871-1945) DE Deutschland DDDE Deutsche Demokratische Republik (1949-1990) Countries and Regions (ISO3166-1/2) Countries and Regions (ISO3166-1/2) 1846 1913 Burhop, C. / Wolff, G. B., 2005: A Compromise Estimate of German Net National Product, 1851-1913 and its Implications for Growth and Business Cycles, in: Journal of Economic History, Vol. 65 (3), S. 613-657. 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GESIS - Leibniz Institut für Sozialwissenschaften GESIS https://www.gesis.org/ Burhop, Carsten; Wolff, Guntram B. 2026-08-15 ZA8203_Arc de.gesis 1.0.0 ZA8203_OrgSch de.gesis 1.0.0 ZA8203_Org_AR de.gesis 1.0.0 Histat 2.0 nach DDI 3.1 Export